WASHINGTON — With congressional special elections completed in Kansas and awaiting a June runoff in Georgia, the nation turns its eyes to Big Sky
Country and the election to replace former Montana congressman and current Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke.
The contest pits last year’s losing Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte, the current favorite, against Democratic cowboy poet and singer Rob Quist and Libertarian Mark L. Wicks, an Inverness cattle rancher and novelist.
The single, statewide congressional district has been in Republican hands for 20 years, but conservative Montana currently has two Democratic statewide office holders in recently re-elected Gov. Steve Bullock and second-term Sen. Jon Tester. The special election is May 25.
The race is likely to become the same kind of referendum on President Trump that the previous special elections have devolved into, with heavy spending from outside groups intended to move a national message, good or bad, about his national leadership.
“Gianforte is the favorite but it appears as though national forces are starting to tune into the race,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor and House races analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
“Some Republican outside groups have started investing, and Democrats may enter soon,” Kondik said. “Democratic candidates have generally been running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s performance in special House and state legislative races so far, and it’ll be interesting to see if that effect manifests itself in Montana and, if so, how dramatic the effect is. The outside spending by national groups will give us a sense of how competitive the race is but, with special elections, there are always challenges in figuring things out in advance.”
The contest pits last year’s losing Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Gianforte, the current favorite, against Democratic cowboy poet and singer Rob Quist and Libertarian Mark L. Wicks, an Inverness cattle rancher and novelist.
The single, statewide congressional district has been in Republican hands for 20 years, but conservative Montana currently has two Democratic statewide office holders in recently re-elected Gov. Steve Bullock and second-term Sen. Jon Tester. The special election is May 25.
The race is likely to become the same kind of referendum on President Trump that the previous special elections have devolved into, with heavy spending from outside groups intended to move a national message, good or bad, about his national leadership.
“Gianforte is the favorite but it appears as though national forces are starting to tune into the race,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor and House races analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
“Some Republican outside groups have started investing, and Democrats may enter soon,” Kondik said. “Democratic candidates have generally been running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s performance in special House and state legislative races so far, and it’ll be interesting to see if that effect manifests itself in Montana and, if so, how dramatic the effect is. The outside spending by national groups will give us a sense of how competitive the race is but, with special elections, there are always challenges in figuring things out in advance.”
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